UFC 130

UFC 130 is tomorrow night, and although the card was definiley hurt by the withdrawl of Frankie Edgar(back), Grey Maynard(knee) and especially Thiago Silva(alternative medicine) it should still be a pretty decent night of fights. The outcome of the main-event is probably a foregone conclusion, but the rest of the card is full of fairly even match-ups. Here are my thoughts:

• Matt Hamill is a good fighter, with a great story. He's deaf. He's made it this far on the strength of his wrestling despite having rudimentary stand-up. He was cheated out of a victory over Mike Bisping years ago. Jon Jones almost ended his life. These are all true stories. But, tommorrow he will face Rampage Jackson, and no matter what storyline the UFC tries to sell, Matt Hamill has no chance in hell. Rampage is on another level, and is coming off perhaps his biggest victory against Lyoto Machida via controversial split decision. Although many (including myself) don't think he won the fight, he showed that he can still compete(and 'win') against the best of the best, something that Matt Hamill is far from. Hamill's only shot is coincidently, his shot. If he manages to control Rampage with his wrestling, he could grind out a decision, and that's likely what he'll try to do. Easier said than done. My Pick: Rampage 2nd round TKO
• A far more interesting match-up is the co-main event featuring Frank Mir versus Roy Nelson. On first glance, one must give Mir the solid advantage. Frank Mir is probably the better, more technical striker and submission artist. But Nelson is the more durable fighter, and with his girth, can always threaten to smother his opponent with that huge belly. Big Country also famously defeated Mir in a grappling tournament many moons ago, but I doubt that will have much of an impact on the result Saturday night. This will be a very close fight, and I've gone back and forth over who I favour. Smart money is on Mir, but Nelson is fully capable of defeating the former champ. My Pick: Its a toss-up, but I'll go with Big Country via decision.

Rapid Fire Picks:

• Brian Stann vs Jorge Santiago - Stann via TKO
• Kendall Grove vs Tim Boetsch - Boetsch via decision
• Stefan Struve vs Travis Browne - Browne via TKO
• Thiago Alves vs Rick Story - Story via decision
• Miguel Torres vs Demetrious Johnson - Johnson via decision